Russian President Vladimir Putin possesses enough financial resources to sustain Russia’s war in Ukraine for at least another two to three years—or possibly longer—despite intensifying economic pressures and Western sanctions. This assessment comes from Sergey Aleksashenko, a former deputy chairman of Russia’s Central Bank.
In a CNBC interview, Aleksashenko described Russia’s economy as nearing stagnation, yet highlighted some successes, such as better inflation management. The Bank of Russia forecasts only 0.9% GDP growth for 2025, a significant slowdown from 4.3% in 2024, driven by sanctions, high interest rates, and heavy military expenditures.
Aleksashenko noted a generally pessimistic public mood but offered measured optimism, saying the “glass is half full” due to central bank efforts on inflation and uneven sectoral performance amid wartime shifts.
Addressing war financing directly, he stated unequivocally:
“Unfortunately, yes,” Putin has sufficient funds. “Despite all rumors, despite the growing budget deficit, despite the growing borrowings by the Minister of Finance, he has enough money to finance the war,” Aleksashenko said, projecting sustainability for “another two, three years, at least. Maybe more.”
This view arrives as Russia’s invasion, begun in February 2022, approaches its fourth year, with Moscow holding roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory amid enormous casualties and strains on resources.
Aleksashenko’s analysis points to the Kremlin’s fiscal durability, supported by rerouted oil income, internal borrowing, and an economy reoriented toward military output at the expense of civilian sectors.
Still, challenges persist: inflation around 9%, widespread labor shortages, and a weakened ruble under sanctions.
Experts caution that while immediate funding appears viable, a drawn-out war risks widening deficits and undermining domestic support if hardships worsen.
The comments follow NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s stark warning at a recent event (including Munich Security Conference-related discussions), where he told European allies that “we are Russia’s next target” and already “in harm’s way.” Rutte called for urgent increases in defense spending and production to prevent a major conflict, suggesting Russia could threaten NATO within five years. He cited Russia’s output of about 2,900 attack drones per month and 2,000 missiles in 2025.
Rutte’s urgency aligns with Putin’s firm territorial demands. In a December 2025 interview ahead of a visit to India, Putin asserted that Russia would take full control of Ukraine’s Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) “by force” unless Kyiv’s forces withdraw voluntarily.
Separately, Russia’s Central Bank launched a lawsuit in Moscow’s Arbitration Court against Belgian clearing house Euroclear in late 2025 (with hearings ongoing into early 2026), seeking to recover losses from roughly €210 billion of the €300 billion in Russian assets frozen by the West since 2022. The suit claims “unlawful actions” by Euroclear in blocking asset management, amid EU proposals to use these funds for a loan to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction—labeled “theft” by Moscow, potentially fueling escalation.
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The bank has pledged to pursue all legal options and reserves the right to unspecified countermeasures. Euroclear, holding most of the assets, has faced numerous similar suits and cited EU safeguards against potential Russian responses. On the diplomatic front, U.S. President Donald Trump, who has promised a quick end to the war, voiced growing impatience in late 2025 remarks.
He told NBC News he was tired of “wasting time” on European talks and had exchanged sharp words with leaders. “Sometimes you have to let people fight it out, and sometimes you don’t,” he said, while claiming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had not reviewed a U.S. draft proposal—though Kyiv sent counterproposals that day.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reinforced this frustration, describing Trump as “extremely frustrated with both sides” and “sick of meetings just for the sake of meeting,” despite extensive recent discussions. Trump held calls with leaders from the U.K., Germany, and France, and is aware of Ukraine’s suggested revisions, including a demilitarized “free economic zone” in Donbas to attract U.S. investment. Leavitt noted a U.S. representative might join upcoming talks only if they promise real progress, underscoring Trump’s emphasis on concrete action over endless dialogue.
Ukraine and its partners seek robust NATO-style security guarantees and substantial post-war aid, viewing U.S. ideas as too concessional to Russia. Public opinion in Ukraine largely rejects territorial giveaways, and Zelenskyy demands accountability for the invasion. With winter intensifying and incremental Russian advances in areas like Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole, a negotiated resolution remains distant, straining alliances and testing endurance across the board.
Credit: CNBC